“This is a massive windfall to the 5 percent or 1 percent” wealthiest American households. It shows operators where to frack vertical wells and where to drill horizontal wells. Europe lacks the critical mass of activity needed to get costs down. This article was first published on his blog Jilles on Energy and is republished here with permission from the author. Essential energy transition metals: “Eco-friendly” trawling of ocean floor could replace land mining, EU Buildings Renovations: get ready for minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), Improving grid response to support climate targets and increased renewables [Energy Post event video], Denmark approves artificial island to site 10GW Offshore Wind hub. Hedging contributed to over 30% of revenue in US shale oil in 2015. Personally, I find this to be the key issue. A day of reckoning will come! I do agree there should be a place for limited activity / limited footprint fracking activity in Western Europe. Even in the 2010-2014 high oil price world, however, most US shale oil producers were already cash flow negative. Isaiah 13:6 Wail, for the Day of the LORD is near; it will come as destruction from the Almighty. I think in Europe we’ll need to develop shale with European characteristics. The financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the still impressive production figures would lead us to believe, writes energy expert Jilles van den Beukel, a former geophysicist with Shell. NASB 1995 The day of reckoning will come Jeff Greenblatt. Thanks for your response and the link to an interesting WP paper. For the day of the LORD of hosts Shall come upon everything proud and lofty, Upon everything lifted up— And it shall be brought low— New American Standard Bible For the LORD of armies will have a day of reckoning Against everyone who is arrogant and haughty, And against everyone who is lifted up, That he may be brought low. That is not the subject of this paper. Since God spoke verbatim through the Old Testament prophets, belief in prophetic words was equal to … The record will be straight." Fracking is here to stay and if Europeans don’t want to use their shale gas, then they will buy someone elses. Three new coal-fired power plants, including two here on the Rotterdam harbor, are supplying much of the power to fuel the Netherlands’ electric-car boom.” I do not think there is an impending shale collapse. The record will be straight." This involves a much more increased focus on the most highly productive areas (whilst suspending activities in all other areas), the continuation of these more limited activities with only the best performing rigs and fracking crews and the overall decrease of service industry costs and rig rates. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. day of reckoning definition: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. For the larger companies the average breakeven price currently ranges between about $40 and $70 per barrel. As a result, in each play different areas have highly variable break-even oil prices. stayed tuned the day of reckoning will come: papa john the day of reckoning will come Behold--how speedily and swiftly they come! EU Recovery funds: where is the support for District Heating? day of reckoning meaning: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. Politically, the fossil fuels industry lacks the support needed to get this of the ground. The best areas with a break-even oil price below $30 per barrel are very small, however (about 1% of the total Bakken area) and are already starting to deplete. By The Mast on April 17, 2018 In every life, there comes a day of reckoning – a time when unsettled scores demand … 4:17). Charles Hugh Smith argues that the middle class has been reduced to “debt serfdom.” How then can the economy survive? Hedging of 2016 production at attractive prices is much less prevalent. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader. This is a technical success story but not a financial one. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. The cause is not some entrepreneur out there trying to invent something and improve the performance of his business. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. Investment was showing signs of weakening in 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/electric-cars-and-the-coal-that-runs-them/2015/11/23/74869240-734b-11e5-ba14-318f8e87a2fc_story.html, Fact check: “It’s just amazing that us Americans who thumbed their noses at the Kyoto Protocols, now emit far fewer particulates than Europeans…” – False With regard to costs, a distinction needs to be made between full cycle cost (which also includes the costs of acquiring leases) and half cycle cost (including drilling and fracking costs but excluding leases). The average high yield US energy bond has slid to 56 cents on the dollar. Apart from higher costs and lower well recoveries at the time, this was primarily due to the money spent on acquiring leases and building infrastructure. The implication of this statement is that the US has lower emissions in general which is false on every relevant measure: energy intensity, carbon intensity and total emissions. Oil in the Bakken for instance was already discovered in the 1950s. Papa John’s Founder Warns Pizza Company Board That Their ‘Day of Reckoning Will Come’ (Video) “They stole the company, and now they’ve destroyed the company,” ex-CEO John Schnatter says. In some cases, producers are forced to drill in order to keep their leases. Filed Under: *, Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: energy trade, financing, natural gas, oil, shale gas, unconventionals, US energy policy. This site uses cookies, for a number of reasons. Jilles, you made that clear upfront and the only concern would be if you’re regularly consuming space cakes. Here’s his full interview…]. Covenants for the extension of funding are being re-negotiated with minimal publicity. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. The majority of advances in the last 2 years seem to come from this second set of factors. Even within a single sweet spot area well performance is highly variable, however. Horizontal drilling can be especially useful above ground in Europe. I would be interested in links to review papers on potential future fracking advances. European shale won’t need to have mega fields to make mega money for those who can grasp how important monetization is. Easy money enabled the rise of the US shale oil industry in the 2010-2014 period. I really appreciate your thoughtful replies. And even if regulators let them: will the current situation start to undermine trust in financial institutions? The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. It is quite possible that this will happen – but by no means a given. Bankers may try to reassure us, claiming that the importance of the energy industry to the overall economy has diminished and that moreover these loans are backed by assets. For many producers, in order to minimise losses, it still makes sense to drill (as long as the oil price stays above half cycle costs). If anything comes of the ground I would say it will be shale gas in Eastern Europe. By Charles Hugh SmithPosted February 27, 2021. I just don’t know. The real story is the amazing resilience of shale with production down only around 10 percent trailing 12 months after prices have dropped by more than 60 percent. Global supply is only expected to become in line with demand in 2017/2018 as the drastic investment cuts in non shale oil take time to materially affect supply. It seems likely that these factors (which should be sustainable in a potential future high oil price world) had reached a plateau by 2014. Both parties have a few things that need to be reckoned with if they want to connect to and reflect the mind of … Perhaps there will be more focus on re-fracking of existing wells, or increasing recoveries in old fields / plays like the Permian? Hundreds of wells are needed to properly evaluate the play. To be fair, the author has made no value judgements on fracking and merely presented a well-supported view on the underlying economics. But will regulators let them? Hence the tendency to be rather lenient regarding loan extensions. Aprender más. Bankruptcies and asset fire sales are in no one’s interest in the current low oil price world. The day of reckoning is coming for the water company directors. Editor’s Note. Activities in poorer producing areas have been much reduced or stopped. But the other key difference is markets. Note: Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics from every possible angle. Taking only those counties with the highest initial production rates in the Bakken (so taking out or at least reducing the effect of high grading) then initial production seems to have leveled of as early as 2014. It is regrettable that much of the public debate on fracking in Europe is taken over by the fear mongerers on safety. The Kyoto Protocols dealt specifically with GHG emissions, not particulates. I work for a technology company that has nothing to do with energy, and I own no stocks in oil/gas, which I find (for some reason) very interesting. “I don’t even look at the price. Stroopwafels and Chocolade Hagelslag are fine. Somehow, I have lost that in my 30 years in the industry. But today James Howard Kunstler argues that once it fades, the U.S. will still be in a “fantastic economic mess,” which the Biden administration will be powerless to solve. Definition of the day of reckoning in the Idioms Dictionary. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. There, I expect that we have now reached a plateau and that shale oil is as competitive as it can possibly be (at least in the short term). Papa John's "Day of Reckoning" Interview refers to a WDRB interview with John Schnatter, the former face of Papa John's who resigned after a series of controversies, including his controversial positions on #TakeAKnee and saying the N word on a conference call. The day of reckoning will come. Technically, fracking in Europe is certainly possible (and it has been done for a long time). I have the impression that, in the short term, the EUR of new wells for a given area in e.g. Can we better delineate sweet spots with seismic methods? The Greek Cypriot leadership must come to its senses. UrMudderV2 2,422 views. Two different sets of factors come into play here. “US shale oil: the day of reckoning will come.”. The glass is half-full Jilles, not half-empty! Thanks Jilles. Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production). I would classify the billions of dollars US taxpayers spend every day to facilitate global energy security by, among other things, ensuring the Suez Canal remains open, as ‘substantive’, I have no idea whether you, Aloysius, are contributing towards global energy security in the form of blood or treasure; however judging by the fact that you have also overlooked this important factor, I’m guessing you don’t, Jilles presents a compelling view and even though it seemed to me that he had a set agenda from the first graff, I’d rather not side-track the feedback and commentary with petty sniping, If my criticism was perceived to be gratuitous, I hope that you will come to see that it was meant to be constructive – focus on what I wrote, not how I wrote it and I in turn will try going forward to avoid making what you described as a ‘personal attack’. This site contains up-to-date information about the shale oil production in the major shale oil basins in the US, and production can be split out for different operators/counties/formations. Technically , long horizontals work offshore Qatar, Sakhalin and Wytch Farm. I would equate the state of fracking (which has been going on for more than 150 years with computer technology in the 1990s. Fracking advances (equipment, techniques, big data, etc) is, if anything, accelerating and there are areas in the Permian basin that are profitable at $30 a barrel. The international hydrocarbon industry has been equal to the challenge of production in very difficult terrain: Arctic, Jungles, deserts etc. I don’t think so! https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8. This prosperity we’ve had in the top 5 percent — and that’s where most of the consumption growth has been — is entirely a function of artificially ballooning stock prices and other risk assets.”, –> Obama “is talking about a symptom, but he’s clueless as to the cause. That leaves me as the one with “personal ties to fracking”, be it for tight gas wells in the North Sea some time ago, hope this does not cloud my judgement. Personal Blog Individual shale oil producers perhaps not. Can the U.S. switch on a Nuclear Fusion plant by 2035? 0:36. For some companies with lower quality assets (half cycle cost greater than oil price) it makes sense to stop operations entirely. This so-called “recovery” is not a recovery at all — just a blip on the radar. Oil prices have been close to $30-$40 per barrel during the first months in 2016. When I get an extra hundred grand, bam, 10,000 goes into gold”…. All Rights Reserved, Get our FREE weekly newsletter straight to your inbox. But UK government now gave a yes to fracking in its land these days. The key to success therefore is finding the sweet spots, with systematically higher EUR’s. They have a stronger political incentive (reduce dependency on Russian gas) and in less populated areas it will be easier to accomodate a large environmental footprint. Thirdly, whereas conventional oil is mostly about finding oil in the first place, shale oil is rather about finding those places where the oil can actually be produced at commercial rates. The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. No additional money is flowing into the US shale industry but the existing money has not been (and cannot be) taken out. Or perhaps you don’t have any. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come. By David Stockman The day of reckoning will come. Upon publishing this paper the site shaleprofile.com (by my fellow Dutchman Enno Peters) was brought to my attention. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/New-Fracking-Technology-To-Bring-Huge-Supplies-Of-Oil-And-Gas-To-The-Market.html, I agree with Seth – as I read this article an image of the author took shape in my mind: a continental European wearing sandals with a pony-tail etc, This image was virtually confirmed when I read the editor’s note, that jilles had resigned to become a freelance traveler,…, Meanwhile the strategic benefits to the USA of not being reliant on OPEC producing nations that so openly hate this country are condicuously absent – possibly because such a positive outcome is inconceivable to anyone living in Europe. Here’s Bill Bonner on why the issue of Civil War statues goes…, By James Rickards Posted February 22, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 16, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 11, 2021, The Keystone XL pipeline is more environmentally friendly than current oil and gas transportation… Now the Federal Reserve is trying to regulate…, The coronavirus could take a big chunk out of first-quarter U.S. GDP…, The optimistic case for the stock market… “In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. It is in the financiers’ interest to continue and aim for a soft landing once oil prices pick up. As a preface to this article, I want to go on record to say that I adhere to the continualist movement of believers who belong to the Pentecostal, Charismatic, and 3rd Wave tradition. Shale oil producers and investors have managed to postpone the day of reckoning, but the fundamentals of the industry make a shake-out inevitable. In March 2015, he resigned to become a freelance traveller and author. Part 1. Shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world – something that is becoming increasingly more difficult. This means that further technological advances are needed to sufficiently lower the breakeven price in the next best areas. Overall the financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the resilience of production would lead us to believe. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. CHR head: Rights violators' day of reckoning coming. The key factor in the resilience of US shale oil production has been the continuation of funding. Judgment begins first in the house of God (1 Pet. Production declined later and less than expected. "The day of reckoning will come" Wessex is safe for now, but King Alfred warns of a new threat beyond its borders. “But behind the green growth is a filthy secret: In a nation famous for its windmills, electricity is coming from a far dirtier source. But not with the low cost as it is done in the US. 2. To assess the prospects of the US shale oil sector, it is important to understand that shale oil is fundamentally different from conventional oil production in important ways. If that is now followed by a similar reduction in cost of energy storage then we are getting somewhere.. These people are dangerous and destructive, and they’re creating this massive income inequality that, sooner or later, is going to cause a huge political reaction.”, -> “We’ve had two huge bubbles that collapsed already in this century. Inhumans Movie 2020, Watch 40-year-old Virgin, National Bank Investments Address, Bbc Urdu Khail, Why Is Iron Ore Prices Increasing, Adyen Australia Gofundme, " />  “This is a massive windfall to the 5 percent or 1 percent” wealthiest American households. It shows operators where to frack vertical wells and where to drill horizontal wells. Europe lacks the critical mass of activity needed to get costs down. This article was first published on his blog Jilles on Energy and is republished here with permission from the author. Essential energy transition metals: “Eco-friendly” trawling of ocean floor could replace land mining, EU Buildings Renovations: get ready for minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), Improving grid response to support climate targets and increased renewables [Energy Post event video], Denmark approves artificial island to site 10GW Offshore Wind hub. Hedging contributed to over 30% of revenue in US shale oil in 2015. Personally, I find this to be the key issue. A day of reckoning will come! I do agree there should be a place for limited activity / limited footprint fracking activity in Western Europe. Even in the 2010-2014 high oil price world, however, most US shale oil producers were already cash flow negative. Isaiah 13:6 Wail, for the Day of the LORD is near; it will come as destruction from the Almighty. I think in Europe we’ll need to develop shale with European characteristics. The financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the still impressive production figures would lead us to believe, writes energy expert Jilles van den Beukel, a former geophysicist with Shell. NASB 1995 The day of reckoning will come Jeff Greenblatt. Thanks for your response and the link to an interesting WP paper. For the day of the LORD of hosts Shall come upon everything proud and lofty, Upon everything lifted up— And it shall be brought low— New American Standard Bible For the LORD of armies will have a day of reckoning Against everyone who is arrogant and haughty, And against everyone who is lifted up, That he may be brought low. That is not the subject of this paper. Since God spoke verbatim through the Old Testament prophets, belief in prophetic words was equal to … The record will be straight." Fracking is here to stay and if Europeans don’t want to use their shale gas, then they will buy someone elses. Three new coal-fired power plants, including two here on the Rotterdam harbor, are supplying much of the power to fuel the Netherlands’ electric-car boom.” I do not think there is an impending shale collapse. The record will be straight." This involves a much more increased focus on the most highly productive areas (whilst suspending activities in all other areas), the continuation of these more limited activities with only the best performing rigs and fracking crews and the overall decrease of service industry costs and rig rates. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. day of reckoning definition: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. For the larger companies the average breakeven price currently ranges between about $40 and $70 per barrel. As a result, in each play different areas have highly variable break-even oil prices. stayed tuned the day of reckoning will come: papa john the day of reckoning will come Behold--how speedily and swiftly they come! EU Recovery funds: where is the support for District Heating? day of reckoning meaning: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. Politically, the fossil fuels industry lacks the support needed to get this of the ground. The best areas with a break-even oil price below $30 per barrel are very small, however (about 1% of the total Bakken area) and are already starting to deplete. By The Mast on April 17, 2018 In every life, there comes a day of reckoning – a time when unsettled scores demand … 4:17). Charles Hugh Smith argues that the middle class has been reduced to “debt serfdom.” How then can the economy survive? Hedging of 2016 production at attractive prices is much less prevalent. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader. This is a technical success story but not a financial one. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. The cause is not some entrepreneur out there trying to invent something and improve the performance of his business. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. Investment was showing signs of weakening in 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/electric-cars-and-the-coal-that-runs-them/2015/11/23/74869240-734b-11e5-ba14-318f8e87a2fc_story.html, Fact check: “It’s just amazing that us Americans who thumbed their noses at the Kyoto Protocols, now emit far fewer particulates than Europeans…” – False With regard to costs, a distinction needs to be made between full cycle cost (which also includes the costs of acquiring leases) and half cycle cost (including drilling and fracking costs but excluding leases). The average high yield US energy bond has slid to 56 cents on the dollar. Apart from higher costs and lower well recoveries at the time, this was primarily due to the money spent on acquiring leases and building infrastructure. The implication of this statement is that the US has lower emissions in general which is false on every relevant measure: energy intensity, carbon intensity and total emissions. Oil in the Bakken for instance was already discovered in the 1950s. Papa John’s Founder Warns Pizza Company Board That Their ‘Day of Reckoning Will Come’ (Video) “They stole the company, and now they’ve destroyed the company,” ex-CEO John Schnatter says. In some cases, producers are forced to drill in order to keep their leases. Filed Under: *, Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: energy trade, financing, natural gas, oil, shale gas, unconventionals, US energy policy. This site uses cookies, for a number of reasons. Jilles, you made that clear upfront and the only concern would be if you’re regularly consuming space cakes. Here’s his full interview…]. Covenants for the extension of funding are being re-negotiated with minimal publicity. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. The majority of advances in the last 2 years seem to come from this second set of factors. Even within a single sweet spot area well performance is highly variable, however. Horizontal drilling can be especially useful above ground in Europe. I would be interested in links to review papers on potential future fracking advances. European shale won’t need to have mega fields to make mega money for those who can grasp how important monetization is. Easy money enabled the rise of the US shale oil industry in the 2010-2014 period. I really appreciate your thoughtful replies. And even if regulators let them: will the current situation start to undermine trust in financial institutions? The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. It is quite possible that this will happen – but by no means a given. Bankers may try to reassure us, claiming that the importance of the energy industry to the overall economy has diminished and that moreover these loans are backed by assets. For many producers, in order to minimise losses, it still makes sense to drill (as long as the oil price stays above half cycle costs). If anything comes of the ground I would say it will be shale gas in Eastern Europe. By Charles Hugh SmithPosted February 27, 2021. I just don’t know. The real story is the amazing resilience of shale with production down only around 10 percent trailing 12 months after prices have dropped by more than 60 percent. Global supply is only expected to become in line with demand in 2017/2018 as the drastic investment cuts in non shale oil take time to materially affect supply. It seems likely that these factors (which should be sustainable in a potential future high oil price world) had reached a plateau by 2014. Both parties have a few things that need to be reckoned with if they want to connect to and reflect the mind of … Perhaps there will be more focus on re-fracking of existing wells, or increasing recoveries in old fields / plays like the Permian? Hundreds of wells are needed to properly evaluate the play. To be fair, the author has made no value judgements on fracking and merely presented a well-supported view on the underlying economics. But will regulators let them? Hence the tendency to be rather lenient regarding loan extensions. Aprender más. Bankruptcies and asset fire sales are in no one’s interest in the current low oil price world. The day of reckoning is coming for the water company directors. Editor’s Note. Activities in poorer producing areas have been much reduced or stopped. But the other key difference is markets. Note: Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics from every possible angle. Taking only those counties with the highest initial production rates in the Bakken (so taking out or at least reducing the effect of high grading) then initial production seems to have leveled of as early as 2014. It is regrettable that much of the public debate on fracking in Europe is taken over by the fear mongerers on safety. The Kyoto Protocols dealt specifically with GHG emissions, not particulates. I work for a technology company that has nothing to do with energy, and I own no stocks in oil/gas, which I find (for some reason) very interesting. “I don’t even look at the price. Stroopwafels and Chocolade Hagelslag are fine. Somehow, I have lost that in my 30 years in the industry. But today James Howard Kunstler argues that once it fades, the U.S. will still be in a “fantastic economic mess,” which the Biden administration will be powerless to solve. Definition of the day of reckoning in the Idioms Dictionary. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. There, I expect that we have now reached a plateau and that shale oil is as competitive as it can possibly be (at least in the short term). Papa John's "Day of Reckoning" Interview refers to a WDRB interview with John Schnatter, the former face of Papa John's who resigned after a series of controversies, including his controversial positions on #TakeAKnee and saying the N word on a conference call. The day of reckoning will come. Technically, fracking in Europe is certainly possible (and it has been done for a long time). I have the impression that, in the short term, the EUR of new wells for a given area in e.g. Can we better delineate sweet spots with seismic methods? The Greek Cypriot leadership must come to its senses. UrMudderV2 2,422 views. Two different sets of factors come into play here. “US shale oil: the day of reckoning will come.”. The glass is half-full Jilles, not half-empty! Thanks Jilles. Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production). I would classify the billions of dollars US taxpayers spend every day to facilitate global energy security by, among other things, ensuring the Suez Canal remains open, as ‘substantive’, I have no idea whether you, Aloysius, are contributing towards global energy security in the form of blood or treasure; however judging by the fact that you have also overlooked this important factor, I’m guessing you don’t, Jilles presents a compelling view and even though it seemed to me that he had a set agenda from the first graff, I’d rather not side-track the feedback and commentary with petty sniping, If my criticism was perceived to be gratuitous, I hope that you will come to see that it was meant to be constructive – focus on what I wrote, not how I wrote it and I in turn will try going forward to avoid making what you described as a ‘personal attack’. This site contains up-to-date information about the shale oil production in the major shale oil basins in the US, and production can be split out for different operators/counties/formations. Technically , long horizontals work offshore Qatar, Sakhalin and Wytch Farm. I would equate the state of fracking (which has been going on for more than 150 years with computer technology in the 1990s. Fracking advances (equipment, techniques, big data, etc) is, if anything, accelerating and there are areas in the Permian basin that are profitable at $30 a barrel. The international hydrocarbon industry has been equal to the challenge of production in very difficult terrain: Arctic, Jungles, deserts etc. I don’t think so! https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8. This prosperity we’ve had in the top 5 percent — and that’s where most of the consumption growth has been — is entirely a function of artificially ballooning stock prices and other risk assets.”, –> Obama “is talking about a symptom, but he’s clueless as to the cause. That leaves me as the one with “personal ties to fracking”, be it for tight gas wells in the North Sea some time ago, hope this does not cloud my judgement. Personal Blog Individual shale oil producers perhaps not. Can the U.S. switch on a Nuclear Fusion plant by 2035? 0:36. For some companies with lower quality assets (half cycle cost greater than oil price) it makes sense to stop operations entirely. This so-called “recovery” is not a recovery at all — just a blip on the radar. Oil prices have been close to $30-$40 per barrel during the first months in 2016. When I get an extra hundred grand, bam, 10,000 goes into gold”…. All Rights Reserved, Get our FREE weekly newsletter straight to your inbox. But UK government now gave a yes to fracking in its land these days. The key to success therefore is finding the sweet spots, with systematically higher EUR’s. They have a stronger political incentive (reduce dependency on Russian gas) and in less populated areas it will be easier to accomodate a large environmental footprint. Thirdly, whereas conventional oil is mostly about finding oil in the first place, shale oil is rather about finding those places where the oil can actually be produced at commercial rates. The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. No additional money is flowing into the US shale industry but the existing money has not been (and cannot be) taken out. Or perhaps you don’t have any. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come. By David Stockman The day of reckoning will come. Upon publishing this paper the site shaleprofile.com (by my fellow Dutchman Enno Peters) was brought to my attention. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/New-Fracking-Technology-To-Bring-Huge-Supplies-Of-Oil-And-Gas-To-The-Market.html, I agree with Seth – as I read this article an image of the author took shape in my mind: a continental European wearing sandals with a pony-tail etc, This image was virtually confirmed when I read the editor’s note, that jilles had resigned to become a freelance traveler,…, Meanwhile the strategic benefits to the USA of not being reliant on OPEC producing nations that so openly hate this country are condicuously absent – possibly because such a positive outcome is inconceivable to anyone living in Europe. Here’s Bill Bonner on why the issue of Civil War statues goes…, By James Rickards Posted February 22, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 16, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 11, 2021, The Keystone XL pipeline is more environmentally friendly than current oil and gas transportation… Now the Federal Reserve is trying to regulate…, The coronavirus could take a big chunk out of first-quarter U.S. GDP…, The optimistic case for the stock market… “In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. It is in the financiers’ interest to continue and aim for a soft landing once oil prices pick up. As a preface to this article, I want to go on record to say that I adhere to the continualist movement of believers who belong to the Pentecostal, Charismatic, and 3rd Wave tradition. Shale oil producers and investors have managed to postpone the day of reckoning, but the fundamentals of the industry make a shake-out inevitable. In March 2015, he resigned to become a freelance traveller and author. Part 1. Shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world – something that is becoming increasingly more difficult. This means that further technological advances are needed to sufficiently lower the breakeven price in the next best areas. Overall the financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the resilience of production would lead us to believe. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. CHR head: Rights violators' day of reckoning coming. The key factor in the resilience of US shale oil production has been the continuation of funding. Judgment begins first in the house of God (1 Pet. Production declined later and less than expected. "The day of reckoning will come" Wessex is safe for now, but King Alfred warns of a new threat beyond its borders. “But behind the green growth is a filthy secret: In a nation famous for its windmills, electricity is coming from a far dirtier source. But not with the low cost as it is done in the US. 2. To assess the prospects of the US shale oil sector, it is important to understand that shale oil is fundamentally different from conventional oil production in important ways. If that is now followed by a similar reduction in cost of energy storage then we are getting somewhere.. These people are dangerous and destructive, and they’re creating this massive income inequality that, sooner or later, is going to cause a huge political reaction.”, -> “We’ve had two huge bubbles that collapsed already in this century. Inhumans Movie 2020, Watch 40-year-old Virgin, National Bank Investments Address, Bbc Urdu Khail, Why Is Iron Ore Prices Increasing, Adyen Australia Gofundme, " />

the day of reckoning will come

the Bakken has leveled of. Low gas and electricity prices for the industry. I wrote this paper to adress the fascinating combination of a technical success story and a financial (near-)disaster. Few bankruptcies have materialised so far but share prices have gone down significantly (often by as much as 90%). Geologically, there are no obvious plays as good as the major US plays (such as the Vaca Muerta in Argentina or the Bazhenov in Russia). But will regulators let them? Say what you want A24 fan, but in the end, the Resident Evil movies director gets the girl The steep rise in US shale oil production, and subsequent drastic cost reductions, have no doubt been a major achievement, but the US shale oil industry now seems as competitive as it can possibly be (at least in the short term – even for a mature industry further technological breakthroughs in the long term cannot be ruled out). It is more similar to the manufacturing industry than conventional oil. Meanwhile, Europeans continue to burn coal because they think fracking is dangerous! We would all be more interested in any substantive arguments you might have rather than personal attacks. Isaiah 17:4 "In that day the splendor of Jacob will fade, and the fat of his body will waste away, Isaiah 20:6 They may be there but establishing them and identifying sweet spots will require a lot of drilling activity. Larry, that is intellectually weak to claim that anyone not agreeing with Jilles has a “personal tie to fracking,” and I guess it’s easier to make a blanket statement than to use facts and and figures to make your own case. Secondly, shale oil requires the drilling and fracking of many wells that are very similar in design. The day of reckoning has come. T The credibility of all this central-bank-dominated, Wall-Street-coddling policy will be totally repudiated, and maybe then we can clean the slate and start over.”. Throughout the years, the shale oil industry has seen impressive gains in efficiency and productivity. End of Cinema: The Day of Reckoning Will Come. If you are the type of person who likes to shop in store, this…, By Nilus Mattive Posted November 21, 2019. added production per Bakken rig is about to reach a plateau, production has been the most resilient in the Permian, Hedging contributed to over 30% of revenue, being re-negotiated with minimal publicity. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street. It is in the financiers’ interest to continue and aim for a soft landing once oil prices pick up. I am not going to defend new coal plants.. Repentance for equating themselves with the Old Testament prophets as in 2 Chronicles 20:20. As a result, it takes many wells before sweet spots (which may be the only places where commercial production can take place) can be located with some confidence. There is zero exploration risk development of shale plays because this is source rock. https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=92&pid=46&aid=2 A day of reckoning . . The key question is whether the next phase of loan extensions and reserve redeterminations in April 2016 will be as lenient as the preceding one in October 2015. So far the industry has not been very successful in predicting sweet spots. Green Taxonomy: finding the right balance [Energy Post event video]. On the technical side, there has been an increased focus on the best producing areas. By continuing to use this website you accept the use of cookies. Find out why the real story Wall Street is…, The Wall Street Journal wags a finger at China…, Trump will win reelection this year. Fracking in the Eagle Ford (photo Earthworks). 13K likes. charlie gold, Gaining ground, twitter … The real reckoning will come when both parties understand how far they’ve drifted from the American people and then begin to lead with humility. Energy independence. US corporate bonds in the energy sector rapidly increased to about $800 bn (an increase that abruptly stopped in late 2014). Problems can often be solved by looking at them from a slightly different perspective, and the best technology now coming out of the US can help. [Intense drilling at increasingly smaller distances implies that wells increasingly interfere with each other.] April 4, 2016 09:31 AM [node:field_image:alt] #1. Shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world – something that is becoming increasingly more difficult. These companies (known in the industry as “zombies“) are trying to survive without any drilling or fracking of new wells, just waiting for the oil price to recover. And while the articles you find here on our website represent our commitment to high quality commentary, they’re only a snippet of what you receive in The Daily Reckoning email edition. Video Posted January 30, 2015, [Ed Note: Our friend David Stockman took to CNBC’s airwaves yesterday. Need to have a more in depth look at this. Thank you for the measured response, and as someone who has spent a lot of time in the Netherlands, I agree that your wonderful, densely-packed country is a bad choice for onshore fracking. Here’s what’s hiding in plain sight and…, Donald Trump’s positioning has put the U.S military one step closer to the next phase of the Korean War. I am curious about long term future fracking advances. I cannot see this happen in Europe (or at least not in Western Europe). There is push among some quarters of Europe to start fracking, I’m thinking about the UK and Poland. Therefore, they will continue to produce where the bulk of fracking costs are already committed, but reductions in credit facilities (caused by the lowered future production outlook) will eventually curtail that activity as well since OPEC has no incentive to (or intention of) let prices rise enough to make US shale production profitable. The cause is not capitalism. I think the worst thing about European emission policies is that it has spent an enormous amount of money with very little to show for in terms of reduction of global CO2 emissions in the short term. I would love to still have enough hair to be able to have a pony-tail (not that I would want one). License areas are much larger is one example but the top two reasons play to Europe’s two gas advantages compared to the Bakken and Bazhenov oil plays. But in the long…, Today, Zach Scheidt explains how to play the most recent rally in oil prices, and uses a real-life story to explain his…, Today, Zach Scheidt explains the strong trends emerging in today’s hotel industry, and gives his top three stocks to buy…, Why the marijuana market is about to get a major shot in the arm…, “We’re on the ground floor of a momentous trend that’s only beginning to get traction — and the profit opportunities from investing…. I think the best thing about European emission policies is that it has created an enormous demand for renewables that has really helped in reducing prices (especially for solar). By James Rickards Posted September 8, 2017, Jim Rickards’ open letter to President Trump on the threat of new world money, known as special drawing rights. Jim Rickards’ chief investment strategist, Dan Amoss, shows you why silver could actually outperform gold in the months and years to come. Here are a few highlights from my recent interview with CNBC’s Jackie DeAngelis: -> “This is a massive windfall to the 5 percent or 1 percent” wealthiest American households. It shows operators where to frack vertical wells and where to drill horizontal wells. Europe lacks the critical mass of activity needed to get costs down. This article was first published on his blog Jilles on Energy and is republished here with permission from the author. Essential energy transition metals: “Eco-friendly” trawling of ocean floor could replace land mining, EU Buildings Renovations: get ready for minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), Improving grid response to support climate targets and increased renewables [Energy Post event video], Denmark approves artificial island to site 10GW Offshore Wind hub. Hedging contributed to over 30% of revenue in US shale oil in 2015. Personally, I find this to be the key issue. A day of reckoning will come! I do agree there should be a place for limited activity / limited footprint fracking activity in Western Europe. Even in the 2010-2014 high oil price world, however, most US shale oil producers were already cash flow negative. Isaiah 13:6 Wail, for the Day of the LORD is near; it will come as destruction from the Almighty. I think in Europe we’ll need to develop shale with European characteristics. The financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the still impressive production figures would lead us to believe, writes energy expert Jilles van den Beukel, a former geophysicist with Shell. NASB 1995 The day of reckoning will come Jeff Greenblatt. Thanks for your response and the link to an interesting WP paper. For the day of the LORD of hosts Shall come upon everything proud and lofty, Upon everything lifted up— And it shall be brought low— New American Standard Bible For the LORD of armies will have a day of reckoning Against everyone who is arrogant and haughty, And against everyone who is lifted up, That he may be brought low. That is not the subject of this paper. Since God spoke verbatim through the Old Testament prophets, belief in prophetic words was equal to … The record will be straight." Fracking is here to stay and if Europeans don’t want to use their shale gas, then they will buy someone elses. Three new coal-fired power plants, including two here on the Rotterdam harbor, are supplying much of the power to fuel the Netherlands’ electric-car boom.” I do not think there is an impending shale collapse. The record will be straight." This involves a much more increased focus on the most highly productive areas (whilst suspending activities in all other areas), the continuation of these more limited activities with only the best performing rigs and fracking crews and the overall decrease of service industry costs and rig rates. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. day of reckoning definition: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. For the larger companies the average breakeven price currently ranges between about $40 and $70 per barrel. As a result, in each play different areas have highly variable break-even oil prices. stayed tuned the day of reckoning will come: papa john the day of reckoning will come Behold--how speedily and swiftly they come! EU Recovery funds: where is the support for District Heating? day of reckoning meaning: 1. a time when the effect of a past mistake is experienced or when a crime is punished 2. a time…. Politically, the fossil fuels industry lacks the support needed to get this of the ground. The best areas with a break-even oil price below $30 per barrel are very small, however (about 1% of the total Bakken area) and are already starting to deplete. By The Mast on April 17, 2018 In every life, there comes a day of reckoning – a time when unsettled scores demand … 4:17). Charles Hugh Smith argues that the middle class has been reduced to “debt serfdom.” How then can the economy survive? Hedging of 2016 production at attractive prices is much less prevalent. He also is founder of David Stockman’s Contra Corner and David Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader. This is a technical success story but not a financial one. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. The cause is not some entrepreneur out there trying to invent something and improve the performance of his business. He was also the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. Investment was showing signs of weakening in 2014. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/electric-cars-and-the-coal-that-runs-them/2015/11/23/74869240-734b-11e5-ba14-318f8e87a2fc_story.html, Fact check: “It’s just amazing that us Americans who thumbed their noses at the Kyoto Protocols, now emit far fewer particulates than Europeans…” – False With regard to costs, a distinction needs to be made between full cycle cost (which also includes the costs of acquiring leases) and half cycle cost (including drilling and fracking costs but excluding leases). The average high yield US energy bond has slid to 56 cents on the dollar. Apart from higher costs and lower well recoveries at the time, this was primarily due to the money spent on acquiring leases and building infrastructure. The implication of this statement is that the US has lower emissions in general which is false on every relevant measure: energy intensity, carbon intensity and total emissions. Oil in the Bakken for instance was already discovered in the 1950s. Papa John’s Founder Warns Pizza Company Board That Their ‘Day of Reckoning Will Come’ (Video) “They stole the company, and now they’ve destroyed the company,” ex-CEO John Schnatter says. In some cases, producers are forced to drill in order to keep their leases. Filed Under: *, Energy, Oil, Gas & Coal Tagged With: energy trade, financing, natural gas, oil, shale gas, unconventionals, US energy policy. This site uses cookies, for a number of reasons. Jilles, you made that clear upfront and the only concern would be if you’re regularly consuming space cakes. Here’s his full interview…]. Covenants for the extension of funding are being re-negotiated with minimal publicity. Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be Silenced. The majority of advances in the last 2 years seem to come from this second set of factors. Even within a single sweet spot area well performance is highly variable, however. Horizontal drilling can be especially useful above ground in Europe. I would be interested in links to review papers on potential future fracking advances. European shale won’t need to have mega fields to make mega money for those who can grasp how important monetization is. Easy money enabled the rise of the US shale oil industry in the 2010-2014 period. I really appreciate your thoughtful replies. And even if regulators let them: will the current situation start to undermine trust in financial institutions? The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. It is quite possible that this will happen – but by no means a given. Bankers may try to reassure us, claiming that the importance of the energy industry to the overall economy has diminished and that moreover these loans are backed by assets. For many producers, in order to minimise losses, it still makes sense to drill (as long as the oil price stays above half cycle costs). If anything comes of the ground I would say it will be shale gas in Eastern Europe. By Charles Hugh SmithPosted February 27, 2021. I just don’t know. The real story is the amazing resilience of shale with production down only around 10 percent trailing 12 months after prices have dropped by more than 60 percent. Global supply is only expected to become in line with demand in 2017/2018 as the drastic investment cuts in non shale oil take time to materially affect supply. It seems likely that these factors (which should be sustainable in a potential future high oil price world) had reached a plateau by 2014. Both parties have a few things that need to be reckoned with if they want to connect to and reflect the mind of … Perhaps there will be more focus on re-fracking of existing wells, or increasing recoveries in old fields / plays like the Permian? Hundreds of wells are needed to properly evaluate the play. To be fair, the author has made no value judgements on fracking and merely presented a well-supported view on the underlying economics. But will regulators let them? Hence the tendency to be rather lenient regarding loan extensions. Aprender más. Bankruptcies and asset fire sales are in no one’s interest in the current low oil price world. The day of reckoning is coming for the water company directors. Editor’s Note. Activities in poorer producing areas have been much reduced or stopped. But the other key difference is markets. Note: Be sure to sign up for The Daily Reckoning — a free and entertaining look at the world of finance and politics from every possible angle. Taking only those counties with the highest initial production rates in the Bakken (so taking out or at least reducing the effect of high grading) then initial production seems to have leveled of as early as 2014. It is regrettable that much of the public debate on fracking in Europe is taken over by the fear mongerers on safety. The Kyoto Protocols dealt specifically with GHG emissions, not particulates. I work for a technology company that has nothing to do with energy, and I own no stocks in oil/gas, which I find (for some reason) very interesting. “I don’t even look at the price. Stroopwafels and Chocolade Hagelslag are fine. Somehow, I have lost that in my 30 years in the industry. But today James Howard Kunstler argues that once it fades, the U.S. will still be in a “fantastic economic mess,” which the Biden administration will be powerless to solve. Definition of the day of reckoning in the Idioms Dictionary. Jilles van den Beukel worked as geologist, geophysicist and project manager and lastly as Principal Geoscientist for Shell in many parts of the world. There, I expect that we have now reached a plateau and that shale oil is as competitive as it can possibly be (at least in the short term). Papa John's "Day of Reckoning" Interview refers to a WDRB interview with John Schnatter, the former face of Papa John's who resigned after a series of controversies, including his controversial positions on #TakeAKnee and saying the N word on a conference call. The day of reckoning will come. Technically, fracking in Europe is certainly possible (and it has been done for a long time). I have the impression that, in the short term, the EUR of new wells for a given area in e.g. Can we better delineate sweet spots with seismic methods? The Greek Cypriot leadership must come to its senses. UrMudderV2 2,422 views. Two different sets of factors come into play here. “US shale oil: the day of reckoning will come.”. The glass is half-full Jilles, not half-empty! Thanks Jilles. Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production). I would classify the billions of dollars US taxpayers spend every day to facilitate global energy security by, among other things, ensuring the Suez Canal remains open, as ‘substantive’, I have no idea whether you, Aloysius, are contributing towards global energy security in the form of blood or treasure; however judging by the fact that you have also overlooked this important factor, I’m guessing you don’t, Jilles presents a compelling view and even though it seemed to me that he had a set agenda from the first graff, I’d rather not side-track the feedback and commentary with petty sniping, If my criticism was perceived to be gratuitous, I hope that you will come to see that it was meant to be constructive – focus on what I wrote, not how I wrote it and I in turn will try going forward to avoid making what you described as a ‘personal attack’. This site contains up-to-date information about the shale oil production in the major shale oil basins in the US, and production can be split out for different operators/counties/formations. Technically , long horizontals work offshore Qatar, Sakhalin and Wytch Farm. I would equate the state of fracking (which has been going on for more than 150 years with computer technology in the 1990s. Fracking advances (equipment, techniques, big data, etc) is, if anything, accelerating and there are areas in the Permian basin that are profitable at $30 a barrel. The international hydrocarbon industry has been equal to the challenge of production in very difficult terrain: Arctic, Jungles, deserts etc. I don’t think so! https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=90&pid=44&aid=8. This prosperity we’ve had in the top 5 percent — and that’s where most of the consumption growth has been — is entirely a function of artificially ballooning stock prices and other risk assets.”, –> Obama “is talking about a symptom, but he’s clueless as to the cause. That leaves me as the one with “personal ties to fracking”, be it for tight gas wells in the North Sea some time ago, hope this does not cloud my judgement. Personal Blog Individual shale oil producers perhaps not. Can the U.S. switch on a Nuclear Fusion plant by 2035? 0:36. For some companies with lower quality assets (half cycle cost greater than oil price) it makes sense to stop operations entirely. This so-called “recovery” is not a recovery at all — just a blip on the radar. Oil prices have been close to $30-$40 per barrel during the first months in 2016. When I get an extra hundred grand, bam, 10,000 goes into gold”…. All Rights Reserved, Get our FREE weekly newsletter straight to your inbox. But UK government now gave a yes to fracking in its land these days. The key to success therefore is finding the sweet spots, with systematically higher EUR’s. They have a stronger political incentive (reduce dependency on Russian gas) and in less populated areas it will be easier to accomodate a large environmental footprint. Thirdly, whereas conventional oil is mostly about finding oil in the first place, shale oil is rather about finding those places where the oil can actually be produced at commercial rates. The rapid increase in shale oil production would not have been possible without the easy money that was readily made available during the 2010-2014 period. No additional money is flowing into the US shale industry but the existing money has not been (and cannot be) taken out. Or perhaps you don’t have any. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come. By David Stockman The day of reckoning will come. Upon publishing this paper the site shaleprofile.com (by my fellow Dutchman Enno Peters) was brought to my attention. http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/New-Fracking-Technology-To-Bring-Huge-Supplies-Of-Oil-And-Gas-To-The-Market.html, I agree with Seth – as I read this article an image of the author took shape in my mind: a continental European wearing sandals with a pony-tail etc, This image was virtually confirmed when I read the editor’s note, that jilles had resigned to become a freelance traveler,…, Meanwhile the strategic benefits to the USA of not being reliant on OPEC producing nations that so openly hate this country are condicuously absent – possibly because such a positive outcome is inconceivable to anyone living in Europe. Here’s Bill Bonner on why the issue of Civil War statues goes…, By James Rickards Posted February 22, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 16, 2021, By James Rickards Posted February 11, 2021, The Keystone XL pipeline is more environmentally friendly than current oil and gas transportation… Now the Federal Reserve is trying to regulate…, The coronavirus could take a big chunk out of first-quarter U.S. GDP…, The optimistic case for the stock market… “In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. It is in the financiers’ interest to continue and aim for a soft landing once oil prices pick up. As a preface to this article, I want to go on record to say that I adhere to the continualist movement of believers who belong to the Pentecostal, Charismatic, and 3rd Wave tradition. Shale oil producers and investors have managed to postpone the day of reckoning, but the fundamentals of the industry make a shake-out inevitable. In March 2015, he resigned to become a freelance traveller and author. Part 1. Shale oil producers and their financiers are trying to sit out the current low oil price world – something that is becoming increasingly more difficult. This means that further technological advances are needed to sufficiently lower the breakeven price in the next best areas. Overall the financial state of the US shale oil industry is much worse than the resilience of production would lead us to believe. Definitions by the largest Idiom Dictionary. CHR head: Rights violators' day of reckoning coming. The key factor in the resilience of US shale oil production has been the continuation of funding. Judgment begins first in the house of God (1 Pet. Production declined later and less than expected. "The day of reckoning will come" Wessex is safe for now, but King Alfred warns of a new threat beyond its borders. “But behind the green growth is a filthy secret: In a nation famous for its windmills, electricity is coming from a far dirtier source. But not with the low cost as it is done in the US. 2. To assess the prospects of the US shale oil sector, it is important to understand that shale oil is fundamentally different from conventional oil production in important ways. If that is now followed by a similar reduction in cost of energy storage then we are getting somewhere.. These people are dangerous and destructive, and they’re creating this massive income inequality that, sooner or later, is going to cause a huge political reaction.”, -> “We’ve had two huge bubbles that collapsed already in this century.

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